Which upcoming concerts are most likely to be heard in the neighborhoods north of the venue — from the forecast wind field and the low-frequency content of each act, fitted on 50 performance dates and 737 resident noise complaints.
Carrying away from the neighborhoods
On the 9 comparable nights in the record: median 3 complaints, worst 29.
Unsettled This forecast has reversed direction 2 times across the last 8 model runs.
Forecast computed 6 hours ago — Aug 23, 4:10 PM Mountain.
Carrying away from the neighborhoods
On the 12 comparable nights in the record: median 2.5 complaints, worst 26.
Unsettled This forecast has reversed direction 3 times across the last 8 model runs.
Forecast computed 6 hours ago — Aug 23, 4:10 PM Mountain.
Carrying north-northeast, wind from the south-southeast
On the 17 comparable nights in the record: median 18 complaints, worst 117.
Unsettled This forecast has reversed direction 2 times across the last 6 model runs. At 13 days out, wind direction is the least reliable part of any forecast.
Forecast computed 6 hours ago — Aug 23, 4:10 PM Mountain.
Every report filed on the resident-run Ford Amphitheater noise map since September 2024, colored by season — 737 in all. That map is collected and maintained by an area resident and is not affiliated with The Monument Independent; hover any dot for the date, severity and distance recorded with it. The venue is at center; rings are one, two, three and four miles. Selecting a show above draws that night's wind: a solid arrow for the average heading, thin dashed lines for each hour of the show, and a shaded sector for the ground it covers. The arrow's length reflects how strongly the wind carries in that direction — an indication of heading, not a modeled distance. Sound travels in every direction from the venue; it simply carries farther downwind.
Forecasts are available for 3 upcoming shows at the Ford Amphitheater. One is forecast at elevated or high propagation risk: Brantley Gilbert on Sat, September 5, 2026. The highest-scoring night is Brantley Gilbert on Sat, September 5, 2026, where the wind is forecast to carry sound toward the neighborhoods north of the venue at a mean downwind component of 6.3 miles per hour. On the 17 comparable nights in the record, the median was 18 complaints and the worst was 117. This forecasts complaint response, not sound level, and it ranks nights rather than predicting a count.
Last refreshed Aug 23, 2026, 4:10 PM Mountain.
Two inputs. Neither is a proxy for the other, and the pair explains more than either alone.
The two are combined into a score from zero to four — a band for the wind, a band for the act — and each score is described by what actually happened on the comparable nights in the record rather than by a modeled number.
| Score | Risk | Nights in record | Median complaints | Upper quartile | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Low | 7 | 0 | 1 | 8 |
| 1 | Low–moderate | 12 | 2.5 | 10 | 26 |
| 2 | Moderate | 9 | 3 | 7 | 29 |
| 3 | Elevated | 17 | 18 | 37 | 117 |
| 4 | High | 5 | 24 | 24 | 32 |
The five tiers are not five distinguishable steps. In the record the two middle tiers sit at medians of 2.5 and 3 and should be read as a single band; the separation that holds is between the bottom three, the elevated tier and the high tier. Note also that the elevated tier carries the worst night in the record while the high tier does not — with five nights in the top tier, that ordering should not be over-read.
Held-out testing across the 50 dates gives a rank correlation between forecast and outcome of +0.42 (p=0.0024). The method is leave-one-out: each night’s expected count is the median of the other nights sharing its score, so no night contributes to its own prediction. Nights the model called high averaged the 67th percentile of complaints for their season; nights it called low averaged the 31th. Complaint counts are normalized within season before fitting, because reporting effort drifts between seasons and raw counts are not comparable across them.
The complaint source is the Ford Amphitheater noise map, run by an area resident rather than by any government body. It is advocacy-aligned — it solicits donations for legal action against the venue — and it permits one report per exact coordinate, so its counts are a hybrid of events and locations and reflect who chose to report. It is used here because no downloadable public complaint dataset exists; the city's own records are split across several systems and are the subject of open-records requests by this newspaper. Not modeled: attendance, stage volume, day of week, the venue's own real-time level adjustments, and drifting reporting effort. Temperature inversion is shown for context but is not in the score; on its own it correlates +0.24 with complaint volume (p=0.0963), which does not reach significance, and it could not be checked against any observation — the airfield reports temperature at the surface only.
The venue's coordinate is not published in any document reviewed and was derived by trilateration from residents' own stated distances, with a root-mean-square error of 0.09 miles — adequate for the banding used here, not for precise distance claims.
Weather from Open-Meteo, refreshed daily. Schedule from the venue's own published listing. Complaint locations from the Ford Amphitheater noise map, a resident-run project that has collected reports since September 2024 and is not affiliated with this newspaper. Map tiles © OpenStreetMap contributors. Model validated against Air Force Academy airfield observations from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive.
