BoardWatch · analysis
El Paso County BOCC land-use vote predictor
Describe a land-use matter heading to the Board of County Commissioners, and this estimates how each commissioner is likely to vote — using nothing but their own record across 896 individual votes cast by the sitting board.
Assumes no aggravating factors. Tick any that apply below and this updates. 3 of 5 seats carry a decision.
How each commissioner is likely to vote
| Commissioner | For | Against | Est. chance of voting no | 95% range | Projection |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Applegate | 90 | 3 | 3.7% | 1.1%–9.1% | Very likely yes |
| Geitner | 341 | 2 | 0.7% | <1%–2.1% | Very likely yes |
| Nelson | 54 | 1 | 2.7% | <1%–9.6% | Very likely yes |
| Williams | 312 | 10 | 3.3% | 1.7%–5.6% | Very likely yes |
| Wysong | 71 | 12 | 15% | 8.5%–24% | Likely yes |
“For” and “against” count positions on the application itself: a yes vote on a motion to deny counts as a vote against the application.
How this works
This is a transparent rubric, not machine learning. It starts from how often each commissioner has actually voted against a land-use application, then adds a fixed amount for each aggravating factor present. Every number it uses is on this page.
Why nobody scores zero
A commissioner who has never voted against an application in fifty votes has not proved they never will — fifty votes is simply not many. Rates here use the Jeffreys estimator, (dissents + 0.5) ÷ (votes + 1), the standard approach for exactly this situation, which never returns 0% or 100%. The 95% range beside each rate shows how thin the evidence is: a commissioner with one dissent in fifty-five votes has a range spanning an order of magnitude, and that range is the honest answer.
What moves the estimate
Each factor carries a fixed weight, listed beside it above and traceable to specific votes. Weights are scaled by how much a given commissioner's own record suggests they respond to such factors, so a member who has dissented once in three hundred votes is not pushed to a coin flip by a single checkbox.
What this cannot do
It assumes commissioners vote independently. They do not — they deliberate together, and dissents cluster. It knows nothing about the specific applicant, the staff recommendation, or anything said at the hearing. It is a projection of likely behaviour from past behaviour, and it is most reliable on routine matters, which are most of them.
Corrections
This tool reports estimates, not facts, and applies no rating to any official. If something here is wrong, tell us at editor@monumentindependent.com. See also our editorial policy and corrections.