Follow the Money: Buc-ee’s, the Ford Amphitheater Network, and the 2026 Commissioner Races

ANALYSIS · Campaign-finance data through TRACER filings of June 17, 2026 (including 48-hour Major Contributor reports). Last updated June 17, 2026

Only two of El Paso County’s five commissioner seats are on the 2026 ballot — District 1 (open; Holly Williams is term-limited) and District 5 (appointed incumbent Lauren Nelson). But because the Board of County Commissioners is the final land-use authority for unincorporated El Paso County, these two races will likely decide the fate of the proposed Buc-ee’s travel center at I-25 and County Line Road — along with Sterling Ranch and other major developments in the county’s pipeline.

The primary is June 30. The general is November 3. Here is where the money is coming from, and what it wants.

Key findings

The most likely YES votes on Buc-ee’s are Lauren Nelson (R, D5) and Ryan Graham (R, D1). Both skipped the Integrity Matters candidate survey — the only forum that asks the Buc-ee’s question directly — and both are funded predominantly by the same development network.

Nelson is the most developer-funded candidate in either race: $54,800 of $74,985 raised (73.1%) comes from developer, real-estate, and construction interests; 84.5% combined when other special interests are included. Only 27.5% of her money comes from inside District 5 — most of the rest comes from north-county developer ZIP codes in District 1, where the Buc-ee’s site sits.

Graham: $29,250 (52.1%) developer money, anchored by his own brokerage (The Platinum Group) and three homebuilder families — but he is also the most locally funded candidate, with 65% of his money from inside District 1.

Direct Buc-ee’s money: effectively none. A statewide TRACER search found zero contributions from Buc-ee’s, its consultant, or the entities that sold it the land. The single deal-adjacent dollar: Jack Mason, the broker who represented the seller, gave Nelson $250 in 2025. Buc-ee’s isn’t buying candidates — it doesn’t need to. If the outcome is being purchased at all, it is being purchased indirectly, through the June 30 primary itself.

The three money blocs

1 · Venu / Ford Amphitheater associates (≈$8,850, Nelson only). Venu CEO JW Roth gave $2,500. Belmont Manor Apartments LLC — which, per Venu’s own SEC 8-K, is owned by a significant Venu shareholder and bought the amphitheater’s parking parcel for $14 million the day after Nelson’s 2025 vacancy-election win — gave a $2,850 maximum check. Kevin O’Neil personally gave three $1,000 checks (two refunded), and NES Inc.’s Andrea Barlow — the amphitheater’s land planner — added $2,500. The amphitheater sits at the center of a live noise and zoning controversy affecting nearby unincorporated residents — and, under the county’s 2023 district map, the venue, Gleneagle and the Northgate area all lie in District 1, not Nelson’s District 5. The Venu-affiliated money flowing to a commissioner who does not even represent the venue’s district underscores the point: land-use matters are decided by all five votes.

2 · Homebuilders with unincorporated-county pipelines (Nelson and Graham). Vantage Homes wrote identical same-day $8,400 blocks of checks to both candidates on May 29. Classic Homes families (~$17,500), Norwood’s David and Christopher Jenkins, La Plata, Campbell Homes, and the CSHBA homebuilders’ PAC fund Nelson, who has already voted their way on Flying Horse East. In the final pre-primary 48-hour reports, the homebuilders’ (CSHBA) and Realtors’ PACs each maxed out to both candidates ($2,850 apiece). Vantage’s sellable future — Sterling Ranch, Retreat at TimberRidge, Winsome — sits almost entirely in unincorporated District 1. (Flying Horse North, a Classic Homes development where Vantage is one of several builders, has reverted to large-lot, low-density filings — see correction.)

3 · Graham’s own brokerage. The Platinum Group’s founding partners and colleagues account for $5,300 of Graham’s money — his in-house candidacy.

Why both seats? Developers need three of five votes. The commissioners who carry past 2026 are Geitner (D2), Wysong (D3) and Applegate (D4) — Geitner leans approve and Wysong leans no on big land-use items — so Graham plus Nelson would tilt the board toward a development-friendly land-use majority covering the major projects in the pipeline, including Buc-ee’s when it arrives.

The Buc-ee’s likelihood matrix

Where the Buc-ee’s project stands

Buc-ee’s withdrew its Palmer Lake annexation application February 4 and bought the 53.4-acre parcel outright in early April for over $10 million through Buc-ee’s EPCO LLC. The county issued a stop-work order on unauthorized grading March 10; the state approved two well permits totaling roughly 28,000 gallons per day — against an estimated maximum demand near 113,600. As of June 10, no land-use application has been filed, and the county says the board “remains neutral.” When filed, the path runs EDARP → Planning Commission → Board of County Commissioners — the board seated in January 2027.

Board math: using Flying Horse East as the proxy vote, Graham + Nelson points to roughly 4–1 approval; Moore + Tonkins to roughly 2–3 denial. The June 30 primary is effectively the Buc-ee’s vote.

Methodology & disclosure

Itemized contributions were pulled from Colorado TRACER and classified into developer/real-estate/construction (Dev/RE) versus other special interest (OSI); every reclassified row reconciles to source totals. Corporate relationships were verified against SEC filings, county land records, and the companies’ own disclosures. Candidate positions come from the Integrity Matters survey and public statements. This analysis reports facts and probability judgments, clearly labeled; it is not an endorsement of any candidate. Corrections: [email protected].

Watch next: the June 26 Springs Opportunity Fund IEC filing; the June 30 primary; and EDARP for the Buc-ee’s application.

Correction (June 12, 2026): An earlier version of this analysis placed Gleneagle, the Northgate area and the Ford Amphitheater in commissioner District 5. Under the county’s 2023 district map, all three are in District 1, as verified against El Paso County GIS data. See our district map and explainer.

Correction (June 2026): An earlier version described “Geitner and Gonzalez” as board holdovers; Longinos Gonzalez Jr. left the Board of County Commissioners in January 2025 and was succeeded in District 4 by Cory Applegate, so the commissioners continuing past 2026 are Geitner, Wysong and Applegate, and the characterization of Mr. Gonzalez’s votes has been removed. The analysis also cited Flying Horse North as a Vantage high-density example; it is a Classic Homes development where Vantage is one of several builders, and its current county filings (No. 6-8) have reverted to large-lot, low-density homes. With thanks to the reader who flagged both points.